Conservative Party of Canada Member of Parliament Garry Breitkreuz has discovered that the federal government is misleading the public about the number of firearms in Canada. Millions more Guns in Canada than the Government will Admit The following Justice Department data shows that the government did not take their own advice and instead used the lowest possible numbers as the "official" number of firearms owners.
Note that, the very first paragraph says, "..based on cumulative research evidence - that the number of firearm owners and firearms will - in reality - fall between the low and medium range." Yet the Liberal government has consistently used 2.3 Million as the official number of firearms owners in order to make the compliance rate look better. As a side note, the CFC Website document concerning the Estimated Number of Firearms Owners in Canada is not available because it is being "revised."
One can only wonder if this "revision" involves changing the Estimated Number to closely match the number of licences that were applied for?
The registration deadline (31 December 2002) is quickly approaching and once again the Justice Department official numbers of firearms in Canada have been set as low as possible to make the rate of compliance look higher than it really is. The CFC does not list a document or study showing the Number of Firearms in Canada but this data (Government estimated 7.4 million) does exist in other documents. Take a look below and notice how the official number closely co-relates to the government's own "Low Range Estimate."
Are we are beginning to see a pattern of deception here?
3.2 Key Projections - 3.2.1 Volumetrics
"The federal SDM [Service Delivery Models] assumes - based on cumulative research evidence - that the number of firearm owners and firearms will - in reality - fall between the low and medium range.
[Footnote #2 - Surveys undertaken from 1989 and 1998 have indicated household ownership to be in decline, ownership was recorded at a high of 33% in 1992 and 17% in 1997 according to an Environics Survey - Focus Canada; initial results of the 1998 Angus Reid survey do not significantly affect prior analyses and findings"]
The following are the baseline volumetric assumptions: Canada
| Low Range Estimates | 2,400,000 firearms owners 7,200,000 firearms |
| Medium Range Estimates | 3,100,000 firearms owners 9,000,000 firearms |
| High Range Estimates | 3,800,000 firearms owners 11,000,000 firearms |
SOURCE: Memorandum of Agreement Respecting the Federal-Provincial Financial Agreement Addressing the Administration of the Firearms Act and Regulations Between The Government of Canada and The Government of the Province of Ontario - APPENDIX 'A' SERVICE DELIVERY MODELS, DISCUSSION PAPER (Version #2a) Overview, Analysis & Development of a Baseline Model, Operations Transition Planning, Canadian Firearms Centre, May 19, 1998.
NOTE: The Agreement with Ontario was signed by Justice Minister Anne McLellan on December 2, 1999 and by Ontario Solicitor General David Tsubouchi on September 14, 2000.
NOTE: The document referred to above was obtained by Garry Breitkreuz, MP from the Department of Justice through the Access to Information Act (Dept. of Justice File: A-2001-0100) dated November 26, 2001.
The National Firearms Association Estimate of the Number of Firearms and Owners in Canada
The National Firearms Association has come to conclusion there are approximately 7 million owners with 21 million firearms. Our figures were calculated using three different methods.
1. There were 1,221,179 restricted firearms in the RCMP registration database FRAS in December 1993. The unrestricted to restricted firearms ratio is at least 20:1. Conservatively that means 24.4 million unrestricted plus 1.2 million restricted firearms. Allowing for errors in the RCMP's FRAS registration system, we strike off 220,000 registered firearms as non-existent, reducing the total to 21 million firearms with 7 million owners.
2. The government's own estimate in December 1976, published as part of its gun control campaign was 6 million owners with 18 million firearms. During hearings on the Campbell bill, officials from the Ministry of Justice testified that the long-term average net annual importation was 190,000 firearms. Therefore, adding 190,000 firearms per year to the 1976 total of 18 million, we get 21.6 million firearms as of December 1993. Subtract 610,000 firearms as an allowance for firearms destroyed, dismantled or worn out and we arrive back at the 21 million figure with 7 million owners.
3. Restricted firearms ownership increased from 861,000 in December 1984 to 1.22 million in December 1993. This is an increase of 41.7% over nine years. Those figures are solid because they are taken from the Annual Report on the Commissioner of the RCMP. The NFA estimates that the 1976 figure for total firearms owned, 18 million increased to 21 million by 1993, representing a total increase of only 16.6% in 17 years. This, obviously, is a very conservative estimate.
None of the above estimates include any figures for illegally imported firearms, which are known to have increased sharply each time restrictive, costly, and/or vague legislation has made legal firearm ownership more complicated, expensive and/or more risky.
Coalition for Gun Control Estimates of the Number of Firearms and Owners in Canada
You may wonder where the CFGC arrives at their very low estimates of the number of firearms and firearms owners in Canada? The CFGC estimates of 2 million owners with 6 million firearms are based on a telephone poll where an anonymous caller requested information about firearms. This poll is wildly inaccurate because many people will simply not admit to an anonymous voice on the phone that they own firearms and how many they own.
Interestingly enough, the CFGC numbers agree that the average firearms owner has three firearms, which is a constant in most countries where citizens are free enough to own firearms.